Following the news that the UN has suspended Russia from the Human Rights Council;
Gargi Rao, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, offers her view:
“Russia’s suspension from the Human Rights Council has triggered other economies to impose even stronger sanctions on Russian manufacturers, oligarchs, and financial institutions thereby jeopardizing Russia’s economic recovery. As a result of this, according to GlobalData’s Country Risk Index (GCRI), the overall risk for Russia increased from 38.4 out of 100 in Q4 2021 to 41.8 in Q1 2022.
“With Russia being a permanent UN Security council member, it’s hard for other countries to hold it accountable for human rights violations. Moreover, if the war on Ukraine continues it may be difficult for the security council members of the UN to work in tandem to resolve the conflict, given Russia’s dominance and veto power.
“Following the suspension on humanitarian grounds, the US government cut its trade relations with Moscow. Additionally, the Japanese government, along with the US and European countries, issued a statement vowing additional sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Other Western countries may also intensify restrictions and completely cut ties with Russia. Human Rights
“In March 2022, the US announced sanctions on 40 Russian defense companies and plans to establish legal authority for future investment restrictions in any sector of the Russian economy. The EU will propose a ban on new European investments across Russia’s energy sector. Furthermore, several EU nations have now banned Russian planes from their air space and are urging others to follow suit. Switzerland imposed sanctions on the Russian financial sector, where transactions with certain state-owned companies and the provision of credit rating services are prohibited. Human Rights
“With bans on Russian exports including oil, diamonds, and other commodities, export earnings for Russia could deteriorate. Russian manufacturers and consumers may feel the pinch of rising energy costs and commodity prices. Also, severe financial sanctions and bans on new investments in Russia will likely put downward pressure on government finances and constrict its fiscal space. Hence, the Russian government is caught in the crossfire of political tensions and economic sanctions. Human Rights
“If the discussions fail to hold, the suspension from the council will intensify Russia’s isolation from the rest of the world. However, a possible retaliation from Russia could endanger global trade, production, and employment. Against this backdrop, GlobalData expects war and sanctions to derail Russia’s economic recovery, which is forecast to contract by 12.5% in 2022.” HumanRights
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